比特幣BTC前景解讀，規(guī)范化市場資本仍看好

The Bitcoin Network Demand Model remains on a 2/6, with the price of bitcoin falling by 8% since we indicated the network had turned bearish last week.

比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)需求模型仍處于2/6（如下圖黑色指針處）。在我們上周表示比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)看跌之后，

比特幣價格隨后下跌了8%。

On-chain transaction value (TV$), shown in blue below, has continued to fall sharply and settled less than $5Bn per day over the week. This marks a further 17% fall from last week and will likely drive the long-term TV $ indicator to “OFF” within the next week.

鏈上交易價值（TV$）繼續(xù)大幅下跌，本周每日結(jié)算量均低于50億美元。這標(biāo)志著它比上周進一步下降了17%，并可能會推動長期TV$指標(biāo)在下周內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)變成“OFF”。

A significant driver of falling TV$ is the lower institutional participation rate, measured on the Terminal through our Institutional Dominance Ratio (IDR). IDR has steadily fallen since mid-May, accompanied by outflows of 8k BTC from institutional-facing investment vehicles, as measured through our fund-flows data.

TV$下降的一個重要驅(qū)動因素是更低的機構(gòu)參與率，這是通過我們的機構(gòu)主導(dǎo)率(IDR)在終端上測量的。自5月中旬以來，IDR一直在穩(wěn)步下降，伴隨著通過面向機構(gòu)的投資工具流出的8000個BTC。

Fees (USD) have continued to fall and remain “OFF” on the short-term time frame. The longer-term trend remains “ON”; however, the rate of change is negative and accelerating. Fees (USD) in absolute terms have returned to Jan’21 levels.

費用（美元）繼續(xù)下降，并在短期內(nèi)保持“OFF”。長期趨勢仍然“ON”，但變化速度呈負(fù)值且正在加速。絕對費用（美元）已回到1月21日的水平。

Today’s news about El Salvador’s Congress recognising bitcoin as legal tender is undoubtedly positive for the long-term outlook of the Bitcoin Network. However, the BYTE model does not seek to comment on the long-term feasibility or success of the network, instead focusing on the current level of activity taking place.

While we are optimistic that El Salvador and its citizens’ use of Bitcoin will boost overall network demand, we wait for confirmation from the chain. On-chain data cuts through expectations of future value, as well as the hyperbole of “to the moon” and “l(fā)aser eyes to 100k”, to focus on the utility here and now.

今天關(guān)于薩爾瓦多國會承認(rèn)比特幣為法定貨幣的消息，無疑對比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)的長期前景是積極的。然而，BYTE模型并不追求評論BTC網(wǎng)絡(luò)的長期可行性或成功，而是尋求關(guān)注當(dāng)前正在發(fā)生的活動的水平。

雖然我們對薩爾瓦多及其公民使用比特幣將促進整體網(wǎng)絡(luò)需求持樂觀態(tài)度，但我們正在等待鏈上數(shù)據(jù)的確認(rèn)。鏈上數(shù)據(jù)，理性削減了對未來價值的預(yù)期，以及“to the moon” 和“l(fā)aser eyes to 100k”的夸張，而專注于目前的效用。

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